The FIFA World Cup 2026 is underway, and the third-place teams are crucial to the tournament's progression. With a new format allowing eight third-place teams to advance to the knockout stage, the race is on for these underdogs to secure their spot. Here's a breakdown of which teams are through and which are still in the running, along with expert analysis and commentary.
Through to the Knockout Stage
Ecuador (Group E): With four points and a goal differential of zero, Ecuador are through. Their stunning win against Germany in their final group match, winning 2-1, secured their place. The South Americans are now set to face Mexico in Mexico City in the round of 32.
Bosnia and Herzegovina (Group B): Finishing third behind Switzerland and Canada with four points and a -1 goal differential, Bosnia and Herzegovina have advanced. They will now play the United States in Santa Clara on July 1.
Sweden (Group F): With four points and a goal differential of zero, Sweden are through. A 1-1 draw against Japan in their final group game was enough to secure their place. Their most likely opponents in the round of 32 are France or Norway at MetLife Stadium on June 30.
In the Running
Paraguay (Group D): With four points and a goal differential of -2, Paraguay are virtually assured a place in the knockouts. Their 0-0 draw with Australia on Thursday night secured their position. They now have a superior points total than two of the third-placed teams that have played all their matches (South Korea and Scotland).
South Korea (Group A): With three points and a goal differential of -1, South Korea have a strong chance of advancing. However, their tournament has been disappointing, and they dropped Son Heung-min in their final group match against South Africa. Our forecast model gives them a 68 percent chance of making the knockout stage.
Scotland (Group C): With three points and a goal differential of -3, Scotland's chances are slim. They were easily beaten by Brazil in their final group match, and their manager Steve Clarke faced criticism for storming out of a post-match interview. Our forecast model gives them a 12 percent chance of advancing.
Groups Yet to Finish
Group L: Ghana are in second place with four points and a +1 goal differential, while Croatia are third with three points and a -1 goal differential. Ghana's points total virtually guarantees them a place in the knockout round. If they were to drop to third, they would still have a superior points total to South Korea and Scotland.
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, and Iran are all in the running. Belgium and Egypt face New Zealand and Iran, respectively, in their final matches. Iran needs at least a draw to have a chance of advancing in third position.
Group I: Senegal and Iraq are in a tight race. Senegal, despite having zero points and a goal differential of -3, has a strong opportunity to advance against Iraq, who are 42 places below them in the world rankings.
Group J: Argentina is through, while Jordan is out. Austria and Algeria will face each other on Saturday to decide second and third place. Austria currently has an 86 percent chance of progression, while Algeria has a 64 percent chance.
Group K: Colombia is already through, and DR Congo is in third place with one point and a -1 goal differential. DR Congo has a good chance of advancing if they win their final match against Uzbekistan.
Group H: Spain is in control of the group, while Uruguay and Cape Verde are in the running. Cape Verde has a 65 percent chance of going through to the round of 32.
Conclusion
The FIFA World Cup 2026 has introduced an exciting new format, and the third-place teams are proving to be a wildcard. With a mix of underdogs and favorites in the running, the tournament is shaping up to be a thrilling spectacle. As the groups finish, the race to the knockout stage intensifies, and the third-place teams will be crucial to the tournament's outcome.
